As of press time, we still have around 40,000 ballots left to count in King County—including about 14,000 in Seattle—and more than 144,000 ballots left to count statewide. King County's signature-challenged ballots number a little more than 4,200, including 1,573 in Seattle. Check the status of your ballot here, and if the county wants you to verify your signature, then just head on over here to fix it online. You have until Monday, August 19 at 4:30 pm to do so, so get on it.
Despite the remaining votes, we've seen some fun movement in several of the races we're tracking. Let's run through them!!!
As predicted, progressive challenger Melissa Chaudhry leapt ahead of Republican and transphobe Paul Martin in the race to face longtime incumbent Adam Smith in Washington's 9th Congressional District, which covers Seattle's southern and eastern burbs. Chaudhry now leads Martin 20% to 18%, giving pro-Palestine voters a champion to rally around in the coming months. Though Chaudhry boasts better policy chops than any Smith challenger I've seen in the last decade, as I've mentioned in previous updates, she's running behind relative to the progressive in 2018.
In a positive turn of events, in the Commissioner for Public Lands race, King County Council Member Dave Upthegrove scooted by MAGA Republican Sue Pederson and now holds second place by 4,500-votes. If that lead holds, then he'll make it through the primary in good shape to win the general, as the combined Republican vote totals currently stand at 43%. On the hopeful side, Upthegrove took 40.9% of the vote in the latest drop from King County, and his team only expected around 36%. (There's you late-breaking Stranger voters, saving the day again 😀). But the 😬 news for team Upthegrove is the fact that more than 144,000 votes remain outstanding. Though 41,000 of those votes lie in liberal King County, the rest lie in the red ocean around us. Over the phone, Upthegrove said his team still predicts a "very close" race, and tomorrow they will launch a ballot chasing operation with 150 volunteers.
Okay, a couple months ago I wrote about the prospect of Washington State Democrats winning a supermajority in the State Legislature, which would give them the power to change the state constitution, which would be cool. Right now, that proposition looks potentially possible for the state Senate, but probably impossible for the State House.
Let's start with the State House Democrats. As far as incumbent defense goes, House Democratic Campaign Committee Chair and State Rep. Monica Stonier says she feels comfortable. The East King County's 5th LD looks good, South King County's 47th and 30th LDs looks good, and the Tacoma-area's 28th LD looks good, with most incumbents running in the mid-to-high 50s. Up in the islands, Democratic State House Rep. Clyde Shavers is currently pulling in 52%, which is fine. The combined vote total for the three-way Dem race over on the Olympic peninsula is 58.5%, so they're fine there, too.
To earn a supermajority, though, State House Democrats need to win all the seats in southwest Washington's 17th and 18th Legislative District, as well as Kitsap peninsula's 26th Legislative District, and also the newly drawn 14th Legislative District. They also need to pick up at least one seat in central Washington's 12th Legislative District.
Dems only fielded one candidate in the two races down in the 17th, but she's not doing too badly. Right now, Terri Niles is putting up 47% of the vote against a couple Republicans. Next door in the 18th, Democrat John Zingale leads two Republicans with 48% of the vote, and Deken Letinich is struggling against Republican Stephanie McClintock with 44.5%.
The 26th LD is looking about the same. In his second run, Democrat Adison Richards nearly cracked 50% of the vote against two Republicans, including angry man and former Republican Rep. Jesse Young. Democrat Tiffany Mitchell will get through the crowded primary with 30% of the vote, and she'll face a tough fight against incumbent Republican Michele Caldier, who pulled in 34%.
Down in Yakima, 14th LD Dems Chelsea Dimas and Ana Ruiz Kennedy are running in the mid-to-high 30s against Republican challengers. Stonier said the candidates say they're "doing a lot of education and voter registration at the doors." Republicans ruled that district for many years before redistricting, and they "didn't do a lot of outreach" so there are "a lot of voters who haven't been invited to participate in a meaningful way," she said.
In the 12th, Democrat Heather Koellen has 44% of the vote.
So right now, House Dems are on track to pick up one seat, and two others look to be in striking distance. The other five need help, and Stonier wants to give it to them in the form of more support for field campaigns. They will be uphill battles, but the recent vibe shift at the national level gives her hope. "There was a tangible shift in energy [when Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up]. People were opening the doors and wanting to talk about legislative candidates more frequently than in the months before," she said.
Now on to the better news for state Senate Democrats. State Senate Democratic candidates in the historically swingy 5th, 28th, and 24th Legislative Districts are doing fine, all hovering in the mid 50s. So they won't have to spend much money on defense in those places.
Up in the islands, the combined Democratic vote total at the moment sits at 51.5%, which is good news for Island County Commissioner Janet St Clair, who leads that race for the Dems.
Over in Yakima's 14th LD, Maria Beltran brought in only 41.5% of the vote, but a couple Dems and one operative I talked to really just feel like they can still make gains out there in the general, given Biden's success within the boundaries of that new district, so we'll see.
Down in the 17th, White Salmon Mayor and Democrat Marla Keethler is doing very well with 49% of the vote, and in the nearby 18th, Democrat Adrian Cortes leads two Republicans with 46% of the vote. Rep Stonier attributes Cortes's relative success to a strong door-knocking operation.
And over in the 12th, Democrat Jim Mayhew trails Republican Keith Goehner with 43%.
To win a supermajority, state Senate Dems need to pick up four seats, and right now, like the House, they're leading in one race and running within striking distance in two races. If the enthusiasm about the general election in the 14th is real, then they're looking pretttttyyyyyy, pretty, pretty close to a supermajority in the state Senate. Which is fun!
The big news in Seattle revolves around Alexis Mercedes Rinck, who will very likely crack 50% in the coming days. Right now she's running a somewhat astonishing 20,000 votes ahead of incumbent Seattle City Council Member Tanya Woo, 49.86% to 39%. If you tack on the combined 8% from the other progressive candidates in this race, then a 19% lead for progressives must have the business stooges shaking their heads and looking to cut their losses in the general.
Not to be outdone, Shaun Scott added three more points to his vote share in race for the open State House seat in the 43rd Legislative District, which covers central Seattle. He now leads with 59%. Meanwhile, We Heart Seattle Founder Andrea Suarez keeps losing her share of the pie as the county tallies more votes. She now holds a distant second with 20%, down a couple points from yesterday. There appears to be no hope for Daniel Carusello, who lost a point between yesterday and today, and who now sits at 16%.
I said it before, and I'll say it again. You want to actually solve Seattle's problems? You want leaders who actually represent the majority of the people who live here? Then tell your representatives to institute even-year elections now.
